There are a few real reasons the moves are this violent.
1. Halvings
Roughly every four years, mining rewards get cut in half. Less new supply, more upward pressure. And sure enough, a big bull run trailed every halving — 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024.
2. Institutional adoption
Starting in 2020, companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy began stacking Bitcoin. Then the 2024 ETF approval threw open Wall Street's floodgates.
3. Regulation and events
China's mining ban (2021) and FTX's collapse (2022) sent it straight down. ETF approval and El Salvador's adoption sent it straight back up.
"$10 on a 2010 Basis" — Value on Record
Run the math backward at $0.003/BTC. In 2010, $10 would've gotten you roughly 3,333 BTC on the record.
At $100,000/BTC in 2026, that's $333 million on paper. Ten dollars into a third of a billion — one of the wildest returns in human history. But don't read that number alone: this same stretch includes 50%-plus crashes, five times over. The record comes welded to extreme volatility, and the two don't separate.
Honestly, almost nobody held the whole way through. Whether you'd sold at 100x or 1,000x, the hardest part — to me, anyway — is simply not selling. It's a record of how brutal "just hold" really is.
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 — 10-Year Record
Line up 2016 through 2026 side by side:
Bitcoin — $400 → $100,000 = ~250x (~70% annually)
Gold — $1,150 → $3,000 = ~2.6x (~10% annually)
S&P 500 — 2,000 → 6,000 = ~3x (~12% annually)
On raw numbers, the other two can't even get in the room with Bitcoin. But over that same window it took 50%-plus drawdowns more than five times. You won't find a cleaner illustration that high reward and high risk travel together.
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